Reliability Evaluation of Cyber–Physical Power Systems Considering Supply- and Demand-Side Uncertainties

Abstract

To reach effective monitoring and control, a physical power grid couples with a communication network and evolves into cyber–physical power systems (CPPS), but this cyber–physical interdependence may exacerbate failure on the physical/cyber side and may turn into a cascading failure. Furthermore, distributed generators (DGs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) introduced into CPPS add uncertainties to both the supply side and demand side of power energy. In this paper, we detail the model of CPPS and its coupling mechanism in operation and discuss the propagation mechanism of cascading failure within and across a physical power grid and a communication network. For uncertainties of power energy in the supply and demand sides, the generation and load of each day are divided into 24 time segments for modeling. In the case study, the well-being criteria and reliability indexes are employed to analyze the effect of DGs and cyber–physical interdependence on the reliability of CPPS when DGs suffer aging failure and cyber attacks, and the simulations indicate that introducing DGs can effectively enhance the period of healthy and marginal states. Furthermore, cyber attacks can sharply destroy the CPPS compared with aging failure.