The Structural Causes and Trend Evolution of Imbalance and Insufficiency of Development of Digital Inclusive Finance in China

Abstract

In this paper, to provide references for coordinating the development of digital inclusive finance between provinces and regions in China, we measure the digital financial inclusion index of 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020 based on three dimensions: coverage breadth, depth of use and digitalization degree. By means of the weighted Dagum Gini coefficient and quantile standardization, we explored the degree of imbalance and insufficiency of the development of digital inclusive finance in China and four major regions and its structural causes. Using the Kernel density estimation method and Markov chain analysis method, we further investigate the evolution trend of imbalance and insufficiency. The study finds that (1) the Digital Inclusive Financial Index in China and the four major regions rose significantly, with the COVID-19 epidemic reducing its growth rate. Of these, the eastern region has the highest development level. (2) The imbalance level of digital inclusive finance development obviously has reduced. The level of imbalance is highest within the eastern region, and the development gap between the eastern and western regions is the widest. The imbalance of overall development is mainly due to regional imbalance. The imbalance of coverage breadth and depth of use is the main structural cause of unbalanced development in the four major regions. There is a trend of bipolarization or multipolarization in China and the other three major regions, with the exception of the central region. (3) The western region is the least developed. The development shortcoming of digital inclusive finance in China and the four major regions is the breadth of coverage. There are the “Club Convergence” and the “Matthew Effect” in the eastern, central and western regions.