Data-Driven Approaches for Wildfire Mapping and Prediction Assessment Using a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN)

Abstract

As wildfires become increasingly perilous amidst Pakistan’s expanding population and evolving environmental conditions, their global significance necessitates urgent attention and concerted efforts toward proactive measures and international cooperation. This research strives to comprehensively enhance wildfire prediction and management by implementing various measures to contribute to proactive mitigation in Pakistan. Additionally, the objective of this research was to acquire an extensive understanding of the factors that influence fire patterns in the country. For this purpose, we looked at the spatiotemporal patterns and causes of wildfires between 2000 and 2023 using descriptive analysis. The data analysis included a discussion on density-based clustering as well as the distribution of the data across four seasons over a period of six years. Factors that could indicate the probability of a fire occurrence such as weather conditions, terrain characteristics, and fuel availability encompass details about the soil, economy, and vegetation. We used a convolutional neural network (CNN) to extract features, and different machine learning (ML) techniques were implemented to obtain the best model for wildfire prediction. The majority of fires in the past six years have primarily occurred during the winter months in coastal locations. The occurrence of fires was accurately predicted by ML models such as random forest (RF), which outperformed competing models. Meanwhile, a CNN with 1D and 2D was used for more improvement in prediction by ML models. The accuracy increased from an 86.48 to 91.34 accuracy score by just using a CNN 1D. For more feature extraction, a CNN 2D was used on the same dataset, which led to state-of-the-art prediction results. A 96.91 accuracy score was achieved by further tuning the RF model on the total data. Data division by spatial and temporal changes was also used for the better prediction of fire, which can further be helpful for understanding the different prospects of wildfire. This research aims to advance wildfire prediction methodologies by leveraging ML techniques to explore the benefits and limitations of capturing complex patterns and relationships in large datasets. Policymakers, environmentalists, and scholars studying climate change can benefit greatly from the study’s analytical approach, which may assist Pakistan in better managing and reducing wildfires.