How to Simulate Carbon Sequestration Potential of Forest Vegetation? A Forest Carbon Sequestration Model across a Typical Mountain City in China

Abstract

Due to a series of human activities like deforestation and land degradation, the concentration of greenhouse gases has risen significantly. Forest vegetation is an important part of forest ecosystems with high carbon sequestration potential. Estimates of the carbon sequestration rate of forest vegetation in various provinces and districts are helpful to the regional and global Carbon cycle. How to build an effective carbon sequestration potential model and reveal the spatiotemporal evolution trend and driving factors of carbon sequestration potential is an urgent challenge to be solved in carbon cycle simulation and prediction research. This study characterized the carbon sequestration status of forest vegetation using the modified CASA (Carnegie-Ames Stanford Approach) model and estimated the carbon sequestration potential from 2010 to 2060 using the FCS (Forest Carbon Sequestration) model combined with forest age and biomass under the four future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, then proposes natural, social, and economic perspectives. This study found that the average NPP of the forest vegetation in Chongqing from 2000 to 2020 was 797.95 g C/m2, and the carbon storage by 2060 was 269.94 Tg C. The carbon sequestration rate varied between <0.01 Tg C/a and 0.20 Tg C/a in various districts and counties. Over time, forest growth gradually slowed, and carbon sequestration rates also decreased. Under the four future climate scenarios, the SSP5-8.5 pathway had the highest carbon sequestration rate. Natural factors had the greatest influence on changes in carbon sequestration rate. This result provides data support and scientific reference for the planning and control of forests and the enhancement of carbon sequestration capacity in Chongqing.