Examining the Potential of Sentinel Imagery and Ensemble Algorithms for Estimating Aboveground Biomass in a Tropical Dry Forest

Abstract

Accurate estimations of aboveground biomass (AGB) in tropical forests are crucial for maintaining carbon stocks and ensuring effective forest management. By combining remote sensing (RS) data with ensemble algorithms, reliable AGB estimates in forests can be obtained. In this context, the freely available Sentinel-1 (S-1 SAR) and Sentinel 2 multispectral imagery (S-2 MSI) data have a significant role in enhancing accurate AGB estimations at a lower cost, which is relevant for the tropical dry forest (TDF) regions where AGB estimation is uncertain or there is a lack of comprehensive exploration. This study aims to address this gap by presenting a cost-effective and reliable AGB estimation approach in the TDF region of Colombia. For this purpose, we modeled and compared the performance of two ensemble algorithms, random forest (RF) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), to estimate AGB using three predictor categories (polarizations/textures, spectral bands/vegetation indices, and a combination of both). We then examined the modeling potential of S-1 SAR and S-2 MSI imagery in predicting forest AGB and subsequently identified the most suitable variables. To construct AGB models’ field data, we employed a clustered distributed sampling approach involving 100 subsample plots, each with an area of 400 m2. Stepwise multiple linear regression was applied to identify suitable predictors from the original satellite bands, vegetation indices, and texture metrics. To produce a map of AGB, predicted AGB values were calculated for every pixel within a specific satellite subscene using the most effective ensemble algorithm. Our study findings show that the RF model, which employed combined predictor sets, displayed superior performance when evaluated against the independent validation set. The RF model successfully estimated AGB with a high degree of accuracy, achieving an R2 value of 0.78 and an RMSE value of 42.25 Mg/ha−1. In contrast, the XGBoost model performed less accurately, obtaining an R2 value of only 0.60 and an RMSE value of 48.41 Mg/ha−1. The results also indicate that S-2 vegetation indices data were more appropriate for this purpose than S-1 texture data. Despite this, S-1 cross-polarized textures were necessary during the dry season for the combined datasets. The top predictive variables for S-2 images were cab and cw, as well as red-edge bands during the wet season. As for S-1 images, texture D_VH _Hom during the dry season was the most important variable for explaining performance. Overall, the proposed approach of using freely available Sentinel data seems to improve the accuracy of AGB estimation in heterogeneous forest cover and, as such, they should be recommended as a data source for forest AGB assessment.