Enhancing Dam Safety: Statistical Assessment and Kalman Filter for the Geodetic Network of Mosul Dam

Abstract

Dams play a pivotal role in providing essential services such as energy generation, water supply, and flood control. However, their stability is crucial, and continuous monitoring is vital to mitigate potential risks. The Mosul Dam is one of the most interesting infrastructures in Iraq because it was constructed on alternating beds of karstified and gypsum which required continuous grouting due to water seepage. Therefore, the ongoing maintenance issues raised international concerns about its stability. For several years the dam indicated a potential for disastrous failure that could cause massive flooding downstream and pose a serious threat to millions of people. This research focuses on comprehensive statistical assessments of the dam geodetic network points across multiple epochs of long duration. Through the systematic application of three statistical tests and the predictive capabilities of the Kalman filter, safety and long-term stability are aimed to be enhanced. The analysis of the dam’s geodetic network points shows a consistent trend of upstream-to-downstream movement. The Kalman filter demonstrates promising outcomes for displacement prediction compared to least squares adjustment. This research provides valuable insights into dam stability assessment, aligns with established procedures, and contributes to the resilience and safety of critical infrastructure. The outcome of this paper can encourage future studies to build upon the foundation presented.