Machine Learning for Prediction of the International Roughness Index on Flexible Pavements: A Review, Challenges, and Future Directions

Abstract

Timely maintenance of road pavements is crucial to ensure optimal performance. The accurate prediction of trends in pavement defects enables more efficient allocation of funds, leading to a safer, higher-quality road network. This article systematically reviews machine learning (ML) models for predicting the international roughness index (IRI), specifically focusing on flexible pavements, offering a comprehensive synthesis of the state-of-the-art. The study’s objective was to assess the effectiveness of various ML techniques in predicting IRI for flexible pavements. Among the evaluated ML models, tree ensembles and boosted trees are identified as the most effective, particularly in managing data related to traffic, pavement structure, and climatic conditions, which are essential for training these models. Our analysis reveals that traffic data are present in 89% of the studies, while pavement structure and climatic factors are featured in 78%. However, maintenance and rehabilitation history appears less frequently, included in 33% of the studies. This research underscores the need for high-quality, standardized datasets, and highlights the importance of model interpretability and computational efficiency. Addressing data consistency, model interpretability, and replicability across studies are crucial for leveraging ML’s full potential in fine-tuning IRI predictions. Future research directions include developing more interpretable, computationally efficient, and less complex models to maximize the impact of this research field in road infrastructure management.