Extreme Value Analysis of NOx Air Pollution in the Winter Seaport of Varna

Abstract

The work studies extreme pollution events and their return period in the winter seaport of Varna, providing information for decision-makers, government agencies and civil society on how the intensity of shipping traffic may impact the air pollution in the vicinity of the port. Extreme value analysis employing the Weibull distribution is applied to investigate air pollution and the probability of higher concentrations of oxides of nitrogen (NOx) generated by ships while queuing in the winter seaport. Potential cleaning of the air pollution generated by the anchored ships is introduced to meet the acceptable level of air pollution concentrations in coastal zones. The employed ship pollution cleaning and overall ship service costs are minimised to satisfy cleaner environmental conditions. The developed approach is adopted to analyse the air pollution of a port without a monitoring system to control and prevent pollution and with limited information on ship traffic and air pollution.