Effect of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Wheat Production in the Eastern Indo-Gangetic Plain

Abstract

The Indo Gangetic Plain (IGP) is a food basket of South Asia and is considered a hotspot for air pollution due to persistently high emissions of anthropogenic aerosols. High levels of aerosols in the IGP not only affect the health of people but also the health of the natural system and the climate of the region. Aerosol effects on crop production in the IGP is an emerging area of interest for policymakers and the scientific community due to their possible effect on the food security and livelihood of millions of people in the region. To investigate the effect of anthropogenic aerosols on wheat production in the eastern IGP, we used a calibrated and validated Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM) model at nodes in Bangladesh, India and Nepal, 2015–2017. The effects of anthropogenic aerosols on wheat production were examined by running the APSIM model under three conditions: firstly, the condition with anthropogenic aerosols, using the observed meteorological data; secondly, the condition without anthropogenic aerosols, considering only the radiative effect of anthropogenic aerosols (adding the reduced radiation due to anthropogenic aerosols on the observed data); thirdly, the condition without anthropogenic aerosols, considering the radiation as well as temperature effects (by adding the reduced solar radiation and temperature due to anthropogenic aerosols on the observed data). The study revealed that, on average, anthropogenic aerosols reduced the wheat grain yield, biomass yield, and crop evapotranspiration by 11.2–13.5%, 21.2–22%, and 13.5–15%, respectively, when considering the 2015–2017 seasons at the target sites of eastern IGP. The study also showed an average reduction of more than 3.2 kg per capita per annum of wheat production in the eastern IGP due to anthropogenic aerosols, which has a substantial effect on food security in the region. Moreover, the loss of wheat grain yield due to anthropogenic aerosols in the eastern IGP is estimated to be more than 300 million USD per annum during the study period, which indicates a significant effect of anthropogenic aerosols on wheat production in the eastern IGP.