Comparison of Future Changes in Frequency of Climate Extremes between Coastal and Inland Locations of Bengal Delta Based on CMIP6 Climate Models

Abstract

Climate change is perceived to be the primary reason for the amplification of extreme climatic phenomena. Estimation of changes in extreme values under climate change thus plays an important role in disaster risk assessment and management. However, the different changes in extremes in two distinct regions: inland and coast under climate change are yet to be investigated meticulously. This study is intended to assess the changes in frequency of rainfall and temperature extremes under the impact of climate change in two distinct locations: coast and inland of Bengal delta, a region highly vulnerable to climate change. The multi-model ensemble (projections from CMIP6 framework) technique with the application of frequency analysis was employed to appraise the impact in two future time horizons. Results suggest that the inland estimate of extreme rainfall by the end of this century is barely able to exceed the coastal estimate of extreme rainfall in present conditions. The rate of increase of warm extremes is almost similar; however, with the cold extreme, the increase rate is a little higher inland than on the coast. In both regions, a greater rise in climate extremes is expected in the far future than in the near future. Overall, the coastal area is expected to be more vulnerable to flooding while the inland to drought under climate change in the Bengal delta region.