Forecasting and Optimization of Wind Speed over the Gobi Grassland Wind Farm in Western Inner Mongolia

Abstract

Wind power, as one of the primary clean energies, is an important way to achieve the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. Therefore, high-resolution measurement and accurate forecasting of wind speed are very important in the organization and dispatching of the wind farm. In this study, several methodologies, including the mesoscale WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model, mathematical statistics algorithms, and machine learning algorithms, were adopted to systematically explore the predictability and optimization of wind speed of a Gobi grassland wind farm located in western Inner Mongolia. Results show that the rear-row turbines were significantly affected by upwind turbine wakes. The output power of upwind-group turbines was 591 KW with an average wind speed of 7.66 m/s, followed by 532 KW and 7.02 m/s in the middle group and 519 KW and 6.92 m/s in the downwind group. The higher the wind speed was, the more significantly the wake effect was presented. Intercomparison between observations and WRF simulations showed an average deviation of 3.73 m/s. Two postprocessing methods of bilinear interpolation and nearest replacement could effectively reduce the errors by 34.85% and 36.19%, respectively, with average deviations of 2.43 m/s and 2.38 m/s. A cycle correction algorithm named Average Variance–Trend (AVT) can further optimize the errors to 2.14 m/s and 2.13 m/s. In another aspect, the categorical boosting (CatBoost) artificial intelligence algorithm also showed a great performance in improving the accuracy of WRF outputs, and the four-day average deviation of 26–29 September decreased from 3.21 m/s to around 2.50 m/s. However, because of the influence of large-scale circulations, there still exist large errors in the results of various correction algorithms. It is therefore suggested through the investigation that data assimilation of the northwest and Mongolian plateau, boundary layer parameterization scheme optimization, and embedding of high-resolution topographic data could have great potential for obtaining more accurate forecasting products.