Multi-Level Circulation Pattern Classification Based on the Transfer Learning CNN Network

Abstract

Deep learning artificial intelligence technology, which has the advantages of nonlinear mapping ability, massive information extraction ability, spatial-temporal modeling ability, and so on, provides new ideas and methods for further improving the accuracy of weather and climate extreme event prediction. A transfer learning CNN (Convolutional Neural Networks) classification model is established to classify the circulation patterns, along with the newly reconstructed dataset of regional persistent historical heavy rain events, daily rainfall data of 2474 observational stations, and the NCEP/NCAR global reanalysis data of daily geopotential height field in 1981–2018. Different from previous classifications, usually with one level variable, here, in addition to 500 hPa heights, 200 hPa zonal winds and 850 hPa meridional winds over the key areas are also considered in the model. The results show that the multi-level circulation pattern classification based on the transfer learning CNN network has a higher accuracy in the independent test than the single-level model, with the accuracy reaching 92.5% (while only 85% for the single-level model). The spatial correlation coefficient of precipitation between each typical mode and related patterns obtained by the multi-level transfer learning CNN classification is greater than that obtained by the single-level transfer learning CNN, and the variance of 500 hPa heights between each typical mode and the associated patterns is also greater than that obtained by the single-level transfer learning CNN. These results show that the performance of the classification by the multi-level transfer learning CNN model is better than that by the single-level transfer learning CNN. The study is helpful to develop circulation classifications related to large-scale weather or climate disaster events and then to provide a physical basis for further improving the forecast effect and extending the valid time of the forecast through combining the numerical model products.