Routes Alternatives with Reduced Emissions: Large-Scale Statistical Analysis of Probe Vehicle Data in Lyon

Abstract

Vehicle air pollution is a significant problem for health and climate change that can be solved by several approaches. The route is one of the many components to be considered. In this work, we propose a statistical analysis of a large FCD database in November 2017 in Lyon (France) in order to find alternative sustainable trips and evaluate potential emission reductions (CO2, NOx, PM10). To this end, an innovative framework was built. First, we assessed vehicle speeds for each network section and the fifteen-minute period, when this information was reachable. Then, we used a regression random forest (RF) algorithm to fill in the missing data. This dynamical speed map allowed us to search for fewer pollutant trips, for the first ten days of November. By using COPERT emission factors (EFs) and the time-dependent Dijkstra algorithm, we successfully identified between 51% and 72% of alternative sustainable paths, depending on the engine technology and the pollutant. We investigated the influence of vehicle technology. In all cases, the number of alternative trips found tends to be the same as soon as the emission savings exceed 5%. Moreover, about 400 trips out of 11,000 have the potential to mitigate about 20% of emissions.