Variation of Local Wind Fields under the Background of Climate Change and Its Impact on Algal Blooms in Lake Taihu, China

Abstract

Global climate change can greatly promote the continuing expansion of algal blooms in eutrophic inland lakes. Wind fields, an important climate factor, provide an external driving force for the movement of algal blooms. Based on algal bloom satellite imageries and wind observation data from 2003 to 2022, this study explored a quantitative assessment of the variations in surface wind fields and their impacts on the algal blooms in Lake Taihu, China. The results indicate that the mean wind speed at different time scales in the Lake Taihu area presents a continuous descending tendency in recent decades, which is the probable cause for the increasing frequency and severity of algal blooms in the lake. Wind fields affect the formation, location, and severity of algal blooms in diverse and complex ways. The area and frequency of algal blooms in Lake Taihu increase with the decrease in wind speed. The 6 h mean wind speed before 12:00 LT (Local Time) on the day of the algal bloom occurrence generally follows a Gaussian distribution, with a wind speed range of (0.6 m/s, 3.4 m/s) at the 95.5% confidence level. Accordingly, the wind speeds of 0.6 m/s and 3.4 m/s are identified to be the lower and upper critical wind speed indicators suitable for the formation of algal blooms, respectively. Another meaningful finding is that the outbreak of large-scale algal blooms requires stricter wind speed conditions, with a significantly lower wind speed threshold of around 2 m/s. Our study also demonstrates that the dominant wind direction of southeast in the region may be an important cause of the continuous water-quality decline and the high frequency and severity of algal blooms in the northwest waters of the lake. These findings will contribute to further studies on the dynamic mechanism of algal blooms and provide support for water environment management and algal bloom prevention and control.