Abstract
Tagetes minuta L., a member of the Tageftes genus belonging to the Asteraceae family, is a well-documented exotic plant native to South America that has become established in China. In this study, 784 occurrence records and 12 environmental variables were used to predict the potential geographical distributions (PGDs) of T. minuta under current and future climatic changes using an optimized MaxEnt model. The results showed that (1) three out of the twelve variables contributed the most to the model performance: isothermality (bio3), precipitation in the driest quarter (bio17), and precipitation in the warmest quarter (bio18); (2) the PGDs of T. minuta under the current climate covered 62.06 × 104 km2, mainly in North, South, and Southwest China; and (3) climate changes will facilitate the expansion of the PGDs of T. minuta under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) in both the 2030s and 2050s. The centroid of suitable habitats under SSP2-4.5 moved the longest distance. T. minuta has the capacity to expand in China, especially in Yunnan, where there exist no occurrence records. Customs, ports, and adjacent regions should strengthen the quarantine of imported goods and mobile personnel for T. minuta, and introduced seedlings should be isolated to minimize their introduction risk.
Funder
National Key R&D Program of China
Technology Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
Subject
Plant Science,Ecology,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
Cited by
2 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献