Analysis of the Potential Range of Anticlea sibirica L. (Kunth) and Its Changes under Moderate Climate Change in the 21st Century

Abstract

The study shows the analysis of the current potential range and the modeling of its changes in the hemiboreal species Anticlea sibirica. The models show the habitat suitability for A. sibirica under moderate climatic changes (RCP4.5) in the middle and second half of the 21st century. For modeling, we used MaxEnt software with the predictors being climate variables from CHELSA Bioclim and a digital elevation model. The modeling has shown that climate change can be favorable for the spread of A. sibirica to the northeastern part of its range by expanding highly suitable habitats in mountainous landscapes along the coast of the Sea of Okhotsk. In the rest of the range, the total area of suitable habitats will decrease. In areas with extremely deteriorating growing conditions, the species will persist in low-competition habitats such as rocky outcrops, riverbanks, and screes. The predicted change in the distribution of A. sibirica indicates a possible strong transformation of the vegetation cover in Siberia and the Urals, even under moderate climate change.