Reproductive Success Dynamics Could Limit Precision in Close-Kin Mark–Recapture Abundance Estimation for Atlantic Goliath Grouper (Epinephelus itajara)

Abstract

Extra-Poisson variance in annual reproductive success can affect the precision of abundance estimates made using ‘close-kin’ mark–recapture procedures. However, empirical evaluation of that variance in natural marine populations can be daunting. Here, a scaling method was used to extend a discrete-time, age-structured model, facilitating investigation of annual and lifetime reproductive success dynamics in Epinephelus itajara. Life tables were synthesized from fishery assessment vital rates and life history measures. For model scaling, a precise empirical estimate of effective population size for the studied population was utilized as the independent variable, and model sensitivity to an informative range of adult abundance was evaluated. The potential for sex reversal to impact reproductive success dynamics was also investigated, albeit in the absence of selective fishing pressure and potential compensatory or depensatory responses. Close-kin relationships in a genetic sample of ~300 adults collected from spawning sites in the Florida Atlantic included numerous full-sibling pairs and multi-sibling families, which is unusual for long-lived, iteroparous marine populations with broadly dispersed larvae. The highly overdispersed reproductive success dynamics modeled for this population and its atypical kinship distribution could have ramifications for planned close-kin mark–recapture analyses. The low observed effective size also has conservation implications. Both issues warrant continued genetic monitoring.