FCG-ASpredictor: An Approach for the Prediction of Average Speed of Road Segments with Floating Car GPS Data

Abstract

The average speed (AS) of a road segment is an important factor for predicting traffic congestion, because the accuracy of AS can directly affect the implementation of traffic management. The traffic environment, spatiotemporal information, and the dynamic interaction between these two factors impact the predictive accuracy of AS in the existing literature, and floating car data comprehensively reflect the operation of urban road vehicles. In this paper, we proposed a novel road segment AS predictive model, which is based on floating car data. First, the impact of historical AS, weather, and date attributes on AS prediction has been analyzed. Then, through spatiotemporal correlations calculation based on the data from Global Positioning System (GPS), the predictive method utilizes the recursive least squares method to fuse the historical AS with other factors (such as weather, date attributes, etc.) and adopts an extended Kalman filter algorithm to accurately predict the AS of the target segment. Finally, we applied our approach on the traffic congestion prediction on four road segments in Chengdu, China. The results showed that the proposed predictive model is highly feasible and accurate.