A Hybrid Forecasting Approach to Air Quality Time Series Based on Endpoint Condition and Combined Forecasting Model

Abstract

Air pollution forecasting plays a vital role in environment pollution warning and control. Air pollution forecasting studies can also recommend pollutant emission control strategies to mitigate the number of poor air quality days. Although various literature works have focused on the decomposition-ensemble forecasting model, studies concerning the endpoint effect of ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and the forecasting model of sub-series selection are still limited. In this study, a hybrid forecasting approach (EEMD-MM-CFM) is proposed based on integrated EEMD with the endpoint condition mirror method and combined forecasting model for sub-series. The main steps of the proposed model are as follows: Firstly, EEMD, which sifts the sub-series intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and a residue, is proposed based on the endpoint condition method. Then, based on the different individual forecasting methods, an optimal combined forecasting model is developed to forecast the IMFs and residue. Finally, the outputs are obtained by summing the forecasts. For illustration and comparison, air quality index (AQI) data from Hefei in China are used as the sample, and the empirical results indicate that the proposed approach is superior to benchmark models in terms of some forecasting assessment measures. The proposed hybrid approach can be utilized for air quality index forecasting.