Spatial Relationship of Inter-City Population Movement and Socio-Economic Determinants: A Case Study in China Using Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression

Abstract

In the current field of regional studies, there is a growing focus on regional spatial relationships from the perspective of functional linkages between cities. Inter-city population movement serves as an embodiment of the integrated functionality of cities within a region, and this is closely tied to the socio-economic development of urban areas. This study utilized Location-Based Services (LBSs) to collect the scale of inter-city population movement across 355 cities in China. Additionally, socio-economic data published by local governments were incorporated. By establishing a Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) model, this research explores the spatial relationships between inter-city population movement and socio-economic influencing factors in China. This study aims to elucidate the spatial scales of the relationships between various variables. Our research findings indicate that the relationship between inter-city population movement and potential socio-economic determinants exhibits spatial non-stationarity. It is better to explore this spatial relationship through the MGWR model as there are different determinants operating on inter-city population movement at different spatial scales. The spatial distribution of the coefficient estimates shows significant regional differences and numerical variations. In China’s economically developed coastal regions, there is relatively balanced development among cities, with advanced manufacturing and producer service industries acting as significant drivers of mobility. In inland regions of China, city size is the most influential variable, directing a substantial flow of human and economic resources towards regional socio-economic hubs such as provincial capitals. The main contribution of this study is the re-examination of the relationship between inter-city population movement and socio-economic factors from the perspective of spatial scales. This approach will help China to consider the heterogeneity of different regions more extensively when formulating regional development policies, thereby facilitating the targeted promotion of regional element flow.