The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Situation of the Unemployed in Poland. A Study Using Survival Analysis Methods

Abstract

Many studies point to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the socio-economic situation of countries and, consequently, on the achievement of sustainable development goals. Although termed a health crisis, the pandemic has also had an impact on the labour market. The imposed restrictions caused companies to close or reduce their operations. Employees switched to remote work, but also often lost their jobs temporarily or permanently. However, the impact of the pandemic on the labour market is not so obvious. This is indicated by our research and that of other researchers. In this paper, we used individual data on the unemployed registered at the labour office in Szczecin (Poland) and were thus able to apply survival analysis methods. These methods allowed us to assess changes in the duration of unemployment and the intensity of taking up work for individual cohorts (unemployed people deregistered in a given quarter). The results indicate, on the one hand, the problems in the labour market during the pandemic and, on the other hand, the adapted reaction of the unemployed to the situation and the acceleration of the decision to accept an offered job.