Finding Global Liquefied Natural Gas Potential Trade Relations Based on Improved Link Prediction

Abstract

Unstable factors such as international relations, geopolitics, and transportation routes make natural gas trade complex and changeable. Diversified and flexible sources of liquefied natural gas (LNG) can guarantee the energy supply security of natural gas-consuming countries. Therefore, it is very important to find potential natural gas trade links to help the government find potential partners and prepare strategically in advance. In this paper, the global LNG network is taken as the research object. In order to fully consider the importance of nodes and the influence of economic and political factors, the “centrality degree” and “node attraction degree” are added into the link prediction algorithm, and multifactor coupling is carried out. The reliability of the improved algorithm is verified using the area under the curve (AUC) evaluation index, and the prediction results are analyzed. The results are as follows: Trinidad, Russia, Algeria, Nigeria, Angola, and Equatorial Guinea (Eq. Guinea) are more likely to establish new LNG trading relationships with other countries. For all potential trade relationships, potential relations involving the above countries are more likely to be realized within 5 years, while potential relations involving China, India, Japan, and South Korea are more likely to be realized within 2 years. China, India, and South Korea are more likely to import LNG from Algeria, and Taiwan Province is more likely to import LNG from Algeria, Angola, Eq. Guinea, and America. On the basis of the above study, states and governments can give priority to the above countries and regions when dealing with the possible LNG supply crisis.