Simulating the Impact of the Sustained Melting Arctic on the Global Container Sea–Rail Intermodal Shipping

Abstract

Global warming trends and the rapid reduction of summer Arctic sea ice extent have increased the feasibility of transarctic transport. How the process of glacier melting affects the existing containerized sea–rail shipping network and container flow assignment has become a challenging economic and policy issue. This paper first examines the meteorological influences on glacier melting and the assignment of container flow over the existing sea–rail network. Then, a three-layer simulation framework is constructed, with the upper layer simulating glacier melting based on the raster grid, the middle layer combining a grid and topology analysis to simulate the evolution of the global sea–rail network and the lower layer establishing a concave cost network flow model to simulate the container flow assignment. Finally, we use MicroCity to achieve the dynamic optimization and simulation of global container flow assignment, solving the large-scale sea–rail shipping network traffic assignment problem. The simulation results show that the proposed model and solution algorithm are feasible and effective, revealing the variation of container flow assignment in the global sea–rail shipping network under different Arctic ice melting scenarios. For instance, in the summer of 2050, the Arctic routes will share the global container flows, resulting in a significant reduction of container flows in the Malacca Strait, Suez Canal and Panama Canal.