Indicators Affecting the Urban Resilience with a Scenario Approach in Tehran Metropolis

Abstract

Urban resilience refers to the capacity of an urban system to fully recover from unforeseen calamities. This study aims to assess the physical resilience indicators used to measure urban resilience in Tehran, the political and economic capital of Iran, and to pinpoint the most significant direct and indirect influences on urban resilience. The research process divided into two parts. The environmental scanning approach (reviewing papers and published sources, interviewing specialists, and monitoring conferences) and the literature review were employed in the first part to compile a database of the key information on the elements impacting physical resilience. The most significant factors impacting physical resilience over the next ten years were requested to be identified by specialists and intellectuals in the second part. Finally, the MicMac program was used to analyze the data after 29 variables were specified in Delphi. In light of the trace-analysis-dependence diagram, which depicts the instability of the influential factors and the persistence of their impact on other variables, the results demonstrate that Tehran’s physical resilience is in an unstable condition. According to the results, the factors that have the maximum impact on other variables are granularity drivers, emergency evacuation capacity, rescue and security spaces (emergency, fire station, and police station), impermeability, rate of the amendment and retrofitting measures in the buildings of each zone, building age, and the compatibility of land uses. The variables that are most susceptible to change from other variables include the distribution status of dangerous land uses, the quality of the buildings, the rate of historically vulnerable buildings, the vulnerability of internal and external roads, the rate of improvements and retrofitting measures in buildings in each zone, as well as historically vulnerable historical buildings.