Evaluation of the Adaptability of the Ukrainian Economy to Changes in Prices for Energy Carriers and to Energy Market Risks

Abstract

The methodological framework for assessing adaptability of the economy to changes in energy prices and risks to energy markets was developed. The study proposes indicators for assessing the level of adaptability of the economic sectors to changes in prices for energy carriers and to risks of energy markets. The model of decomposition of adaptability level of the economy sectors to changes in energy prices has been developed. The theoretical and empirical analysis of the influence of energy prices on adaptability level of enterprises and households is carried out. Based on the empirical analysis, it was found that adaptability level of the sectors of Ukrainian economy significantly differs both in the years of the investigated period and in sectors of the economy. At the same time, most indicators of the level of adaptability vary from 0.4 to 0.7. Consequently, the actual decline in the profit of enterprises was 40–70% lower than the potentially possible decrease in the profit of these enterprises due to the prices rising for energy carriers. Moreover sectors which are less vulnerable to the growth of prices show higher adaptability level.The possibility of using the obtained results in developing a state energy saving strategy is substantiated.