Effects of Direct Assimilation of FY-4A AGRI Water Vapor Channels on the Meiyu Heavy-Rainfall Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts

Abstract

In this study, the regional Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF)-based quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) are conducted for an extreme Meiyu rainfall event over East Asia in 2020. The data of water vapor channels 9 and 10 from the Advanced Geosynchronous Radiation Imager (AGRI) onboard the Fengyun-4A (FY-4A) satellite are assimilated through the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system. It shows that a reasonable amount of assimilated AGRI data can produce reasonable water vapor increments, compared to the too sparse or dense assimilated AGRI observations. In addition, the critical success indexes (CSIs) of the precipitation forecasts within 72 h are obviously improved. The enhanced variational bias correction (VarBC) scheme is applied to remove the air-mass and scan-angle biases, and the mean observation-minus-background (O − B) values before and after the VarBC of channel 9 are −1.185 and 0.02 K, respectively, and those of channel 10 are −0.559 and −0.01 K, respectively. Assimilating the upper-level channel 9 data of AGRI (EXP_WV9) lead to a neutral-to-positive effect on QPFs, compared to the control run (CTL), which is based on the assimilation of Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) data. In particular, the CSIs from 42 to 72 h are significantly improved. However, the assimilation of the AGRI channel 10 (EXP_WV10) shows a neutral-to-negative effect on QPFs in this study, probably due to the complicated surface situations. This study confirms the feasibility of assimilating the water vapor channel data of FY4A AGRI in the GSI system and highlights the importance of assimilating AGRI channel 9 data to improve the QPFs of the Meiyu rainfall event.