A Simple Risk Score Based on Routine Clinical Parameters Can Predict Frailty in Hospitalized Heart Failure Patients

Abstract

Frailty syndrome (FS) has recently attracted attention as one of the major predictors of heart failure (HF) course severity. We aimed to develop a simple tool for predicting frailty in hospitalized HF patients using routine clinical parameters. A total of 153 hospitalized patients diagnosed with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) were included in the study. Presence of FS was assessed with the SHARE-FI questionnaire. Clinical and biochemical parameters were collected. Using ROC curves and logistic regression analysis, a model predicting FS presence was developed and tested. Proposed model includes five variables with following cut-off values (1 point for each variable): age > 50 years, systolic pressure on admission < 110 mmHg, total cholesterol < 4.85 mmol/L, bilirubin ≥ 15.5 mmol/L, and alanine aminotransferase ≤ 34 U/L. Receiving 5 points was considered a high risk of FS with positive and negative predictive values (NPV), 83% and 72%, respectively, and specificity of 97%. Awarding 2 points or less ruled out FS in the studied group with negative predictive value 94%. The presented novel, simple score predicts FS in HFrEF patients with routine clinical parameters and has good positive and negative predictive values.