Optimization of State of the Art Fuzzy-Based Machine Learning Techniques for Total Dissolved Solids Prediction

Abstract

Total dissolved solid prediction is an important factor which can support the early warning of water pollution, especially in the areas exposed to a mixture of pollutants. In this study, a new fuzzy-based intelligent system was developed, due to the uncertainty of the TDS time series data, by integrating optimization algorithms. Monthly-timescale water quality parameters data from nearly four decades (1974–2016), recorded over two gaging stations in coastal Iran, were used for the analysis. For model implementation, the current research aims to model the TDS parameter in a river system by using relevant biochemical parameters such as Ca, Mg, Na, and HCO3. To produce more compact networks along with the model’s generalization, a hybrid model which integrates a fuzzy-based intelligent system with the grasshopper optimization algorithm, NF-GMDH-GOA, is proposed for the prediction of the monthly TDS, and the prediction results are compared with five standalone and hybrid machine learning techniques. Results show that the proposed integrated NF-GMDH-GOA was able to provide an algorithmically informed simulation (NSE = 0.970 for Rig-Cheshmeh and NSE = 0.94 Soleyman Tangeh) of the dynamics of TDS records comparable to the artificial neural network, extreme learning machine, adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system, GMDH, and NF-GMDH-PSO models. According to the results of sensitivity analysis, Sodium in natural bodies of water with maximum value of error (RMSE = 56.4) had the highest influence on the TDS prediction for both stations, and Mg with RMSE = 43.251 stood second. The results of the Wilcoxon signed rank tests also indicated that the model’s prediction means were different, as the p value calculated for the models was less than the standard significance level (α=0.05).