Production Strategy Development: Simulation of Dependencies Using Recurrent Fuzzy Systems

Abstract

New and unsaturated markets are predominantly located in countries with low incomes. To successfully establish businesses in these new markets, an increasing globalization of value creation is necessary. The integration of these new markets is challenged by their dynamics, turbulence and regulation. Above all, an initially low and volatile demand as well as high barriers for market entry must be counteracted by economical small-series production. As market development is a major challenge for Small and Medium Enterprises (SME), knowledge about the impact of local conditions on their production strategy decisions is essential. Therefore, we design a recurrent fuzzy model combining country- and company-specific input factors as well as internal production parameters to obtain a transparent and reproducible impact statement. The model allows a simplified development of the expert knowledge base by mapping the influences in two steps. The application of the designed model is based on the example of the aCar mobility project, within which an electric vehicle was designed for local value creation in Africa. By applying the model for different African countries, strategy sensitivities can be identified, and recommendations derived.