Abstract
Motivated by a practical problem faced by an energy trading company in Poland, we investigate the profitability of balancing intermittent generation from renewable energy sources (RES). We consider a company that buys electricity generated by a pool of wind farms and pays their owners the day-ahead system price minus a commission, then sells the actually generated volume in the day-ahead and balancing markets. We evaluate the profitability (measured by the Sharpe ratio) and market risk faced by the energy trader as a function of the commission charged and the adopted trading strategy. We show that publicly available, country-wide RES generation forecasts can be significantly improved using a relatively simple regression model and that trading on this information yields significantly higher profits for the company. Moreover, we address the issue of contract design as a key performance driver. We argue that by offering tolerance range contracts, which transfer some of the risk to wind farm owners, both parties can bilaterally agree on a suitable framework that meets individual risk appetite and profitability expectations.
Subject
Energy (miscellaneous),Energy Engineering and Power Technology,Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment,Electrical and Electronic Engineering,Control and Optimization,Engineering (miscellaneous)
Cited by
23 articles.
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