Belgian Energy Transition: What Are the Options?

Abstract

Different scenarios at different scales must be studied to help define long term policies to decarbonate our societies. In this work, we analyse the Belgian energy system in 2035 for different carbon emission targets, and accounting for electricity, heat, and mobility. To achieve this objective, we applied the EnergyScope Typical Days open source model, which optimises both the investment and the operation strategy of a complete energy system for a target year. The model includes 96 technologies and 24 resources that have to supply, hourly, the heat, electricity, mobility, and non-energy demands. In line with other research, we identify and quantify, with a merit order, different technological steps of the energy transition. The lack of endogenous resources in Belgium is highlighted and estimated at 275.6 TWh/y. It becomes obvious that additional potentials shall be obtained by importing renewable fuels and/or electricity, deploying geothermal energy, etc. Aside from a reduction of the energy demand, a mix of solutions is shown to be, by far, the most cost effective to reach low carbon emissions.