Stability and Changes in the Spatial Distribution of China’s Population in the Past 30 Years Based on Census Data Spatialization

Abstract

As the world’s most populous country, China has experienced massive population growth and dramatic regional migration over the past 30 years. From 1990 to 2020, the national population increased by 24.4%, the urban population tripled, and the rural population declined by 41.0%. Combined with complex topographic features, unique characteristics of the population distribution have emerged. Many studies have examined changes in the spatial distribution of the population. However, few studies have examined the stability of certain aspects of this distribution over the last 30 years, particularly at the raster scale, which may provide important information for future research and development plans. Based on land use maps and nighttime light images, China’s census data from 1990 to 2020 was scaled down to a resolution of 1 km using a method called multiple linear regression based on spatial covariates. The results show that there were some striking features of both stability and change in the spatial distribution of China’s population over the past three decades. The population shares divided by the Hu line, the Qinling-Huaihe line, and the three-step staircase have remained almost unchanged. In contrast, the population share of the coastal region has risen from 23.7% to 29.0% during the study period. The urban areas have expanded by 1.35 times and their population has doubled. In addition, for every 1 km2 increase in the urban areas, an area of 29.4 km2 has been depopulated on average. This suggests that urbanization can alleviate population pressure in larger areas. However, the coastal regions and urban and peri-urban areas were the main areas of population density growth, so they required a great deal of attention for ecological protection.