Dynamics for Sustainable Nuclear Buildup Based on LWR and FBR Technologies and Its Impact on CO2 Emission Reduction

Abstract

In recent years, most of the growth in electricity demand is covered by renewable and nuclear energy sources. However, electricity generation in fossil-fired power plants is also increasing resulting in the increase of CO2 emissions. Nuclear energy has to be considered as one of the available tools to accomplish CO2 emission reduction in electricity sector. Light water reactors (LWR) are currently the dominant nuclear technology but their intensive application in long-term period is constrained by available uranium fuel resources. Fast breeder reactors’ (FBR) technology is not used on a larger scale. Plutonium resources are limited, but do have the potential of stronger buildup if light water reactors, as the source of plutonium, are used on a larger scale. The appropriate dynamics for LWR/FBR buildup till the end of the 21st century is developed under assumptions of different LWR life times, and different uranium fuel resources available. The possible CO2 emission reduction is calculated with World Energy Outlook 2015 development scenarios being set as reference ones. It is shown that nuclear fuel resources do not represent an obstacle for strong nuclear buildup leading to significant CO2 emission reduction. However, the reduction is mostly achieved in the second half of the century.