Grid Model of Energy Consumption Using Random Forest by Integrating Data on the Nighttime Light, Population, and Urban Impervious Surface (2000–2020) in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macau Greater Bay Area

Abstract

Energy consumption is an important indicator for measuring economic development and is closely related to the atmospheric environment. As a demonstration zone for China’s high-quality development, the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area imposes higher requirements on ecological environment and sustainable development. Therefore, accurate data on energy consumption is crucial for high-quality green development. However, the statistical data on local energy consumption in China is insufficient, and the lack of data is severe, which hinders the analysis of energy consumption at the metropolitan level and the precise implementation of energy policies. Nighttime light data have been widely used in the inversion of energy consumption, but they can only reflect socio-economic activities at night with certain limitations. In this study, a random forest model was developed to estimate metropolitan-level energy consumption in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area from 2000 to 2020 based on nighttime light data, population data, and urban impervious surface data. The estimation results show that our model shows good performance with an R2 greater than 0.9783 and MAPE less than 9%. A long time series dataset from 2000 to 2020 on energy consumption distribution at a resolution of 500 m in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area was built using our model with a top-down weight allocation method. The spatial and temporal dynamics of energy consumption in the Greater Bay Area were assessed at both the metropolitan and grid levels. The results show a significant increase in energy consumption in the Greater Bay Area with a clear clustering, and approximately 90% of energy consumption is concentrated in 22% of the area. This study established an energy consumption estimation model that comprehensively considers population, urban distribution, and nighttime light data, which effectively solves the problem of missing statistical data and accurately reflects the spatial distribution of energy consumption of the whole Bay Area. This study provides a reference for spatial pattern analysis and refined urban management and energy allocation for regions lacking statistical data on energy consumption.