CLIMAEXTREMO: A New Risk Indicator for the Health Risk to Building Occupants during Extreme Weather Events in Portugal

Abstract

Portugal is the country in Europe where the death rate in winter and summer has the highest correlation with outdoor temperatures. The Portuguese National Institute of Public Health Ricardo Jorge has developed a national warning system for heat waves called ICARO, which has been in place since 1999 (and is the oldest in Europe). However, it presents some limitations, namely, the low spatial resolution (five regions in Portugal’s mainland), the low temporal forecasting period (one day), and the fact that it was only accessible to health authorities until very recently. This work describes the development of a new public dashboard that uses a new early warning index for extreme weather events, the CLIMAEXTREMO index, which extends the current warning system by improving the current forecasting models for risk by integrating new sources of public data and increasing the spatial and time resolution of the warnings to the municipality or the parish level. The new index is a combination of a new model to estimate the relative mortality increase (updating the model used in ICARO) together with a model of the indoor temperature of building archetypes for all municipalities and a vulnerability index that considers socio-demographic economic indicators. This work discusses the results of the new risk indicator for the heat waves that occurred in Portugal at the end of June and mid-August 2023, and it shows that the index was able to indicate a high risk for the municipalities that had an increase in the number of deaths during that period.