Projecting the Potential Global Distribution of Carpomya vesuviana (Diptera: Tephritidae), Considering Climate Change and Irrigation Patterns

Abstract

The ber fruit fly Carpomya vesuviana Costa (Diptera: Tephritidae) is the most destructive pests of Ziziphus spp. Carpomya vesuviana infestation causes great economic losses. We re-parameterized an existing CLIMEX model, and used the updated CliMond 30′ gridded resolution datasets within CLIMEX for the periods 1987–2016 and 2071–2100, representing historical and future climates, respectively, to predict the potential global distribution of the pest. Under the historical climate scenario, C. vesuviana had a wide climatically suitable distribution worldwide, from approximately 46° S to 50° N. Future climate change expanded the upper boundary of the potential distribution northward, and predicted that the pest would distribute approximately from 50° S to 60° N. Temperature was the primary determinant of the potential distribution of the pest among all driving variables. Irrigation was associated with a slight improvement in the climate favorability for the pest in some areas, including south-western North America, northern and southern Africa, and most of Oceania. The projections clarify the impacts of climate change on the potential global distribution of C. vesuviana, and are instructive for quarantine and management agencies for reducing economic damage caused by the fly and preventing expansion of C. vesuviana due to climate change.