A Geodetic-Data-Calibrated Ice Flow Model to Simulate Historical and Future Response of Glaciers in Southeastern Tibetan Plateau

Abstract

Glaciers play a vital role in the Asian mountain water towers and have significant downstream impacts on domestic, agricultural, and industrial water usage. The rate of glacier mass loss in the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau (SETP) is among the highest in Asia and has intensified in recent decades. However, a comprehensive quantification that considers both spatial and temporal aspects of glacier mass loss across the entire SETP is still insufficient. This study aimed to address this gap by utilizing geodetic datasets specific to each glacier by calibrating the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) driven by HAR v2 and reconstructing the glacier mass balance of 7756 glaciers in the SETP from 1980 to 2019 while examining their spatial variability. The findings reveal that the average mass balance during this period was −0.50 ± 0.28 m w.e. a−1, with an accelerated loss observed in the 2000s (average: 0.62 ± 0.24 m w.e. a−1). Notably, central glaciers in the SETP exhibited relatively smaller mass loss, indicating a gradient effect of increased loss from the central region toward the eastern and western sides. By the end of this century, the area, length, and volume of glaciers in the entire SETP region are projected to decrease by 83.57 ± 4.91%, 90.25 ± 4.23%, and 88.04 ± 4.52%, respectively. Moreover, the SETP glacier melt runoff is estimated to decrease by 62.63 ± 6.16% toward the end of the century, with the “peak water” point of glacier melt runoff predicted to occur in 2023 under the SSP585 scenario. Sensitivity experiments demonstrated that the SETP glaciers are more than three times more sensitive to temperature changes than to precipitation variations, and the observed decrease in monsoon precipitation indicates the weakening magnitude of the Indian summer monsoon in recent years. The spatially refined and high-temporal-resolution characteristics of glacier mass loss presented in this study contribute to a better understanding of specific glacier changes in the SETP. Additionally, the prediction results provide valuable references for future water resources management and policy formulation in the SETP region.