Spatial–Temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of China’s High-Quality Economic Development

Abstract

Combining an indicator system developed based on existence–relatedness–growth (ERG) needs and multiple weighting approaches, this paper evaluates the level of high-quality economic development (HQED) in Chinese provinces from the perspective of human well-being from 2007 to 2020. Spatial analysis, Dagum’s Gini coefficient (DGC), and spatial econometric modeling were employed to investigate the spatial–temporal evolutionary characteristics, regional differentiation, and driving factors of HQED in China. The following conclusions are drawn: (1) During the period of 2007–2019, the level of Chinese HQED showed a stable upward trend, and gradually produced the development characteristics of “only super power and multi-great power” and spatial features of “point, line and plane”, with Beijing as the absolute leader, the southeastern coastal region as the advantageous belt, and the relatively advantageous plane in central and western areas with Shaanxi as the core. (2) The degree of spatial differentiation in Chinese provincial HQED narrowed year by year, with intra-regional differentiation organized as follows: eastern > northeastern > western > central; inter-regional differentiation was concentrated in the development gaps across the other three major regions and the eastern areas. (3) Chinese provincial HQED had a significant spatial autocorrelation characteristic, which was further revealed by the spatial Durbin model (SDM) to be a siphon effect at the national and regional levels, i.e., the plundering of the resources and development opportunities of weaker provinces by stronger ones. (4) Driving factors such as economic scale, urbanization level, resource endowment, government size, green technological innovation, industrial structure upgrading, and environmental regulations affected HQED at the national level and in the four major regions to varying degrees. These findings could contribute to policymakers’ efforts to design targeted regional development policies during the transition period of China’s economic development.