Machine Learning Model-Based Simple Clinical Information to Predict Decreased Left Atrial Appendage Flow Velocity

Abstract

Background: Transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) is the first technique of choice for evaluating the left atrial appendage flow velocity (LAAV) in clinical practice, which may cause some complications. Therefore, clinicians require a simple applicable method to screen patients with decreased LAAV. Therefore, we investigated the feasibility and accuracy of a machine learning (ML) model to predict LAAV. Method: The analysis included patients with atrial fibrillation who visited the general hospital of PLA and underwent transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) between January 2017 and December 2020. Three machine learning algorithms were used to predict LAAV. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was measured to evaluate diagnostic accuracy. Results: Of the 1039 subjects, 125 patients (12%) were determined as having decreased LAAV (LAAV < 25 cm/s). Patients with decreased LAAV were fatter and showed a higher prevalence of persistent AF, heart failure, hypertension, diabetes and stroke, and the decreased LAAV group had a larger left atrium diameter and a higher serum level of NT-pro BNP than the control group (p < 0.05). Three machine-learning models (SVM model, RF model, and KNN model) were developed to predict LAAV. In the test data, the RF model performs best (R = 0.608, AUC = 0.89) among the three models. A fivefold cross-validation scheme further verified the predictive ability of the RF model. In the RF model, NT-proBNP was the factor with the strongest impact. Conclusions: A machine learning model (Random Forest model)-based simple clinical information showed good performance in predicting LAAV. The tool for the screening of decreased LAAV patients may be very helpful in the risk classification of patients with a high risk of LAA thrombosis.