Extracting New Temporal Features to Improve the Interpretability of Undiagnosed Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Prediction Models

Abstract

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) often results in high morbidity and mortality. In addition, T2DM presents a substantial financial burden for individuals and their families, health systems, and societies. According to studies and reports, globally, the incidence and prevalence of T2DM are increasing rapidly. Several models have been built to predict T2DM onset in the future or detect undiagnosed T2DM in patients. Additional to the performance of such models, their interpretability is crucial for health experts, especially in personalized clinical prediction models. Data collected over 42 months from health check-up examinations and prescribed drugs data repositories of four primary healthcare providers were used in this study. We propose a framework consisting of LogicRegression based feature extraction and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection operator based prediction modeling for undiagnosed T2DM prediction. Performance of the models was measured using Area under the ROC curve (AUC) with corresponding confidence intervals. Results show that using LogicRegression based feature extraction resulted in simpler models, which are easier for healthcare experts to interpret, especially in cases with many binary features. Models developed using the proposed framework resulted in an AUC of 0.818 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.812−0.823) that was comparable to more complex models (i.e., models with a larger number of features), where all features were included in prediction model development with the AUC of 0.816 (95% CI: 0.810−0.822). However, the difference in the number of used features was significant. This study proposes a framework for building interpretable models in healthcare that can contribute to higher trust in prediction models from healthcare experts.