Analysis of the Gravity Movement and Decoupling State of China’s CO2 Emission Embodied in Fixed Capital Formation

Abstract

Investment is an essential engine of economic growth and a major source of China’s CO2 emission. It is therefore crucial to explore the gravity movement and decoupling state of China’s CO2 emission embodied in fixed capital formation (FCF). This study aims to estimate China’s CO2 emissions embodied in various categories of FCF by using input–output tables. The gravity model and Shapley decomposition method are used to explore the gravity movement and regional contributions for China’s CO2 emissions embodied in FCF. Then, the Tapio decoupling model and logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method are combined to uncover the decoupling relationship between CO2 emissions and economic growth embodied in FCF and the corresponding driving factors. The results show that China’s CO2 emissions embodied in FCF experienced a rapid increase during 2002–2012 and remained almost stable during 2012–2017. The gravity center for CO2 emissions embodied in FCF moved toward northwest during 2002–2015, with the northwestern region and middle Yellow River region being the main engine regions. The relations between CO2 emissions and added values embodied in various categories of FCF were weak decoupling during 2002–2017. Investment scale was the major factor inhibiting the decoupling, while embodied energy intensity was the major factor promoting the decoupling. Finally, several policy recommendations are proposed based on these findings.