NPP Variability Associated with Natural and Anthropogenic Factors in the Tropic of Cancer Transect, China

Abstract

The regions near the Tropic of Cancer are a latitudinal geographical zone with typical climatic, topographic, and human landscape features. It is necessary to explore the region’s net primary productivity (NPP) dynamics as it combines complex topography, various vegetation types, and intense human activities. The study sets the transect near the Tropic of Cancer (TCT) and uses the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford (CASA) model to estimate the NPP from 2000 to 2020. After using the RESTREND method, the paper calculates and compares the relative contributions of climate variability and anthropogenic activities to NPP changes. Finally, the geographical detector (Geodetector) model is applied to evaluate how anthropogenic and natural factors affect spatial distribution patterns and NPP changes. The results indicated that the average annual NPP is 820.39 gC·m−2·yr−1 during the 21 years. In addition, when the NPP varies, it increases over the entire study area, with a slope of 4.81 gC·m−2·yr−1, particularly in the western region. Across the entire research area, 63.39% and 77.44% of the total pixels positively contribute to climate variability and human activities in NPP, with a contribution of 0.90 and 3.91 gC·m−2·yr−1, respectively. Within the western, central, and eastern regions, anthropogenic activities have a stronger impact on NPP than climate variability, particularly pronounced in the eastern region. Furthermore, vegetation cover is the dominant factor in the spatial patterns and NPP trends across the TCT and the three regions. In contrast, climate factors are shown to be less influential in NPP distribution than in the western region. The results also demonstrated that the effect of population density and the GDP on NPP gradually rises. Two-factor interaction is much larger than any individual factor, with the dominant interaction factor being vegetation cover with climatic factors. Lastly, the findings revealed that anthropogenic activities positively promote NPP accumulation across the TCT, thus highlighting the importance of human activity-led ecological restoration and ecological protection measures that contribute to regional carbon sequestration and carbon balance.