Bayesian-Based NIMBY Crisis Transformation Path Discovery for Municipal Solid Waste Incineration in China

Abstract

Environmental conflicts have been a top global focus and issue for human’s sustainable development. China is confronted with a serious situation with a rigid demand of ecological governance, in which the “Not In My Back Yard” (NIMBY) crisis outbreaks frequently. NIMBY has a great impact on government management and social stability. This study aims to analyze the NIMBY crisis transformation path for municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) in China. Considering environmental, social and economic influences, this study seeks to find methods of transforming dangers into opportunities. A conceptual framework for realizing the NIMBY crisis transformation in waste management decision-making was conducted with a hybrid approach. A fishbone diagram was applied to explain the key factors of NIMBY crisis transformation for MSWI. Integrating Bayesian network structure discovery and co-word analysis into a qualitative analysis, searched data and key factors from a literature search engine with specific themes were used for structure learning. The results showed that project location, benefit compensation, publicity and education, public decision, public participation, the rule of law and multiple governance have distinct influences on the NIMBY crisis transformation process in China. In summary, the conceptual framework describes the complex process of NIMBY crisis transformation and helps to deepen data mining for municipal solid waste management (MSWM).