Scenario Analysis for Incremental Community Planning in an African Context

Abstract

Urban areas are gradually becoming more viable places in terms of life quality than most rural areas. This phenomenon generates human movements, both at a local and at an international scale, the latter usually being labeled as irregular migration. This study aims at analyzing urban scenario proposals that part from incremental urbanism principles to create opportunities for youth and women in the area of Pikine Est (Senegal), a neighborhood with a high vocation toward migration. An integrated planning approach is proposed, where an initial project identification stage reveals through documentary analysis and discussion the adequate project strategies to apply and shines a light on proper life quality indicators (LQIs). In the successive stage, project formulation, future-oriented scenarios are proposed. Finally, at the evaluation stage, each urban scenario is assessed to determine which one contains a more suitable set of strategies in function of the community’s needs, employing multi-criteria analysis (MCA) and preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation (PROMETHEE) methods. As a result, this study proves through measurable data that assessing incremental urban interventions makes sense in developing communities, not only as a study of their response to scarce financial resources, but also as means to overcome and avoid environmental issues that cities face at a global scale today.