Mathematical Exchange Rates Modeling: Equilibrium and Nonequilibrium Dynamics

Abstract

The development of the author’s concept of the International Flows Equilibrium Exchange Rate (IFEER) is the basis for the mathematical exchange rate modeling of two interconnected equal economies. IFEER-concept allows modeling the exchange rate dynamics of relatively medium-term equilibrium and short- and long-term disequilibrium. Discrete and integral versions of the concept are the basis for further modeling. New structural models of medium-, short- and long-term dynamics and new final structural dependencies of the exchange rate on the system of fundamental factors are the main results. The models include mathematically formalized export-import and capital flows and international competitive advantages indicators. The modeling allowed the revealing of the structural pricing mechanism of the exchange rate dynamics from new positions. We verify the US dollar to the Russian ruble exchange rate modeling during periods of financial and economic crises in recent Russian history, based on a systematic analysis of the exchange rate policy. Because of the analysis, the fall in export prices of oil and other energy carriers in international markets, the rise in consumer prices within the country, and the fall in aggregate output are the main reasons for the fall of the Russian ruble. The conducted modeling allows for the evaluation of the short-term contribution to the crisis depreciation dynamics. The mathematical tools allow for the development of the decision-making process on the exchange rate regulation.