Intelligent Prediction of Maximum Ground Settlement Induced by EPB Shield Tunneling Using Automated Machine Learning Techniques

Abstract

Predicting the maximum ground subsidence (Smax) in the construction of soil pressure balanced shield tunnel, particularly on soft foundation soils, is essential for safe operation and to minimize the possible risk of damage in urban areas. Although some research has been done, this issue has not been solved because of its complexity and many other influencing factors. Due to the increasing accuracy of machine learning(ML) in predicting surface deformation of shield tunneling and the development of automated machine learning(AutoML) technology. In the study, different ML prediction models were constructed using an open source AutoML framework. The prediction model was trained by the dataset, which contains 14 input parameters and an output (i.e., Smax). Different AutoML frameworks were employed to compare their validities and efficiencies. The performance of the model is estimated by contrasting the prediction accuracy parameters, including root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and determinant coefficient (R2).With a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.808, MAE of 3.7, and RMSE of 5.2 on the testing dataset, the best prediction model i.e., extra tree regressor showed better performance, proving that our model has advantages in predicting Smax. Furthermore, the SHAP analysis reveal that the soil type (ST), torque (To), cover depth (H), groundwater level (GW), and tunneling deviation have a significant effect on Smax compared to other model inputs.