Methodology for the Identification of Shock Wave Type and Speed in a Traffic Stream Using Connected Vehicle Data

Abstract

The concept of traffic shock waves was first theorized by Lighthill and Whitham in 1955. The identification of shock wave type and speed in a traffic stream provides critical information about the queue formation and its dissipation. This information can be utilized by various stakeholders for traffic management, emergency response, etc. Such information can also be integrated into the travel time prediction models and real-time route diversions for navigation. Past efforts at identifying shock waves used simulation or analysis based on location-based sensors such as loop detectors. This paper describes scalable methodologies for measuring shock wave propagation using Connected Vehicle (CV) data. The techniques to identify the six different types of shock waves are illustrated through case studies from Indiana highways that use both CV data and the corresponding surveillance camera images. The shock wave speeds for each event are estimated using the linear regression model, with most shock wave speed estimates having a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.9 or better. Although shock wave speeds vary by traffic flow rates and geometry, the typical backward forming shock wave speeds ranged from 1.75 to 11.76 mph whereas the backward recovery shock wave speeds were observed to be between 5.78 and 16.54 mph. These techniques can be adapted for real-time use to assist traffic management centers with estimating upstream propagation and recovery time. A case study with a car fire is used to illustrate how this shock wave speed data can be used to frame discussions with first responders regarding how reducing incident clearance time can reduce the risk of secondary crashes.