Emission Impacts of Post-Pandemic Travel Behaviour in Intercity Corridors

Abstract

COVID-19 pandemic impacted the behaviour of travellers. While worldwide, overall emissions decreased during the lockdown, shared mobility options may be perceived as less safe in a post-pandemic reality, leading to increased emissions due to expanded individual transportation. In particular, intercity trips entail numerous environmental impacts, such as emissions. The main objective of this paper is to assess how intercity corridors’ emissions vary when travel behaviour of the population changes following a pandemic. Based on a macroscopic modelling framework, the methodology consisted of three main phases: data collection, traffic modelling and emission modelling. Different scenarios related to the impact of the pandemic were developed, and their impacts were analysed using several key performance indicators related to CO2 NOx emissions and travel time. Findings suggest that reducing the average number of occupants per vehicle reduces emissions, which do not increase linearly with the number of vehicles. Compared with the baseline scenario (occupancy rate of 1.30), the most extreme scenario (occupancy rate of 1.00) may result in an increase in both CO2 and NOx emissions by approximately 30%. These results highlight the importance of making public transport and carpooling not only safe but also safe as perceived by users.