Identification before-after Forest Fire and Prediction of Mangrove Forest Based on Markov-Cellular Automata in Part of Sembilang National Park, Banyuasin, South Sumatra, Indonesia

Abstract

In 1997, the worst forest fire in Indonesia occurred and hit mangrove forest areas including in Sembilang National Park Banyuasin Regency, South Sumatra. Therefore, the Indonesian government keeps in trying to rehabilitate the mangrove forest in Sembilang National Park. This study aimed to identify the mangrove forest changing and to predict on the future year. The situations before and after forest fire were analyzed. This study applied an integrated Markov Chain and Cellular Automata model to identify mangrove forest change in the interval years of 1989–2015 and predict it in 2028. Remote sensing technology is used based on Landsat satellite imagery (1989, 1998, 2002, and 2015). The results showed mangrove forest has decreased around 9.6% from 1989 to 1998 due to forest fire, and has increased by 8.4% between 1998 and 2002, and 2.3% in 2002–2015. Other results show that mangroves area has continued to increase from 2015 to 2028 by 27.4% to 31% (7974.8 ha). It shows that the mangrove ecosystem is periodically changing due to good management by the Indonesian government.