Prognostic Factors for Iatrogenic Tracheal Rupture: A Single-Center Retrospective Cohort Study

Abstract

Iatrogenic tracheal ruptures are rare but severe complications of medical interventions. The main goal of this study was to explore prognostic factors for all-cause mortality and rupture-related (adjusted) mortality. We retrospectively analyzed patients admitted to an academic referral center over a 15-year period (2004–2018). Fifty-four patients met the inclusion criteria, of whom 36 patients underwent surgical repair and 18 patients were treated conservatively. In a 90-day follow-up, the all-cause mortality was 50%, while the adjusted mortality was 13%. Rupture length was identified as a predictor for all-cause mortality (area under the curve, 0.84; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.74–0.94) with a cutoff rupture length of 4.5 cm (sensitivity, 0.70; specificity, 0.81). Multivariate analysis confirmed rupture length as a prognostic factor for all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.5; 95% CI 1.2–1.9; p = 0.001), but not for adjusted mortality (HR 1.5; 95% CI 0.97–2.3; p = 0.068), while mediastinitis predicted adjusted mortality (HR 5.8; 95% CI 1.1–31.7; p = 0.042), but not all-cause mortality (HR 1.6; 95% CI 0.7–3.5; p = 0.243). The extent of iatrogenic tracheal rupture and mediastinitis might be relevant prognostic factors for all-cause mortality and adjusted mortality, respectively.